Al-Ghad

… but the outcome seems to have been decided already.

An important conference was held in Dubai on September 4th, 2007, under the name Dubai-Iraq. The idea is to have the appearance that Oil Law is all but passed. Oilgram News reported that:

“Dubai-Iraq will issue an international licensing round immediately after parliament passes a hydrocarbon law with plans to offer 10 to15 oil fields for development and between three and five blocks for exploration, Iraqi oil officials said September 4. The oil ministry has already drawn up the necessary documentation and would be ready to move once parliament votes on the long-awaited oil and gas law, hopefully before the end of the year, said one official familiar with the process. One industry source said the ministry had invited four to five international companies to help prepare technical documents. “Yes, a licensing round will be issued after the hydrocarbon law is passed,” former oil minister Thamer Ghadban told Platts on the sidelines of an energy conference in Dubai, without giving a timeline.”

The idea is to present the matter as fait accompli, as this would fit well with the US Congress meeting on 11 September to the promised reports on the situation in Iraq. But the facts on the ground are not promising as the Dubai conference appears to show. The Iraqi Government is now in shambles, composed by four parties to which the Prime Minister belongs, is in deep split. The other forces which withdrew from the Maliki Government are seeking alliances that points to a major re-alignments in the country increasingly making the present political set up irrelevant. This situation is developing in parallel with the confusion in the United States itself.

Whether the US succeeds or fails in forcing the Oil Law through the Iraqi Parliament is becoming less relevant as this does not resolve the deepening crisis both in Iraq and the US itself.

Al-Ghad

Update: For related information see Washington Post article: Missteps and Mistrust Mark the Push for Legislation